# Touch Wood

> A playful fair test for one superstition from your own life. Name a lucky habit you do or carry, or a sign that just happens, say what counts as things going well, and tally how often things went well or badly with it and without it. The page works out both rates and the gap, draws them on an old penny-scale dial and gives a free verdict by a fixed rule. One metered run names the 3 likeliest suspects behind the pattern and writes a fair test to try next.

URL: https://touch-wood.skillsafe.ai/
API: https://touch-wood.skillsafe.ai/api.html

## The verdict rule (free, in the browser)
Checked in order, first match wins:
1. Too few tries - fewer than 5 times with it, or fewer than 5 without it.
2. Memory keeping score - the counts came from memory rather than notes kept at the time.
3. Holds up so far - the well rate with it beats the rate without it by 20 points or more in the direction the belief claims (lower, for an unlucky habit or sign).
4. Runs backwards - 20 points or more the other way.
5. Coin flip - otherwise.
Rates are rounded to whole percents before the gap is taken. The fair test aims for at least 10 times on each side and at least 10 more times in all: a coin decides for a habit; for a sign, it is written down before the result is known. Beliefs that mention a medicine, a treatment or safety gear get a change-nothing, write-it-down plan.

## The metered run (task "luck-test")
Input strings: task, belief, goal, tally (the page's lines), notes. Reply: one JSON object with verdict (copied from the page), headline, numbers, suspects (exactly 3 from a fixed list: chance, memory, other-cause, picking-moments, bounce-back, self-fulfilling, kept in that order), fair_test and closing. The page re-checks the verdict, the suspects, every number and the word limits.

## Sources
- Built on the SkillSafe skill @davila7/scientific-critical-thinking: https://skillsafe.ai/skill/@davila7/scientific-critical-thinking

For fun and curiosity, not professional advice. A tally can show a pattern but cannot prove a cause.